Has #GE2020 come down to a Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil race?

Judging by the results of the latest opinion poll, it certainly seems that way. The results of the Red C/Business Post poll are in, showing that Sinn Fein has surged past Fine Gael and are real competition for Fianna Fáil, who have been frontrunners thus far. The poll surveyed 1,000 voters and was taken over six days, it has a margin of error of three percent. It also shows that Fianna Fáil are losing favour, albeit slightly, while Sinn Féin continue to gain ground. Meanwhile, Fine Gael is on a downward trajectory, with their current campaigning methods receiving criticism from voters.

? #GE2020 OPINION POLL Business Post/Red C (Jan 25-30, MoE 3%)

Fianna Fáil 24 (-2 in eight days) Sinn Féin 24 (+3) Fine Gael 21 (-2) Greens 7 (-1) Labour 5 (+1) Social Democrats 3 Aontú 2 (+1) Solidarity-PBP 1 (-1) Independents 12 (-2) — Gavan Reilly (@gavreilly) February 2, 2020

Meanwhile, The Green Party are down one to seven percent, Labour are up one to five percent and the Social Democrats have stayed the same at three percent. Independents are at twelve percent (down two places) while Aontú is at 2 percent and People Before Profit at one percent. Political journalist Gavan Reilly shared the results on Twitter today, revealing the demographic breakdown of the voters.

Demographic breakdown of BP/Red C poll (smaller samples so higher margin of error):

Voters aged 18-34 SF 35 FF 18 FG 15 Voters aged 35-54 SF 29 FF 19 FG 18 Voters aged 55+: FF 32 FG 27 SF 11 — Gavan Reilly (@gavreilly) February 2, 2020

These results follow the results of The Times Ireland poll which again followed the same pattern of support for Sinn Féin. Yesterday morning, Taoiseach Leo Vardakar shared a video saying that Fine Gael would under no circumstances go into government with Sinn Féin, see below.

I will never go into government with Sinn Féin. I asked my team if they would and they answered unequivocally.

Micheál Martin cannot say the same about his front bench. pic.twitter.com/zEoKqpIgQO

— Leo Varadkar (@LeoVaradkar) February 1, 2020